As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall
Larry Keane is senior vice president and general counsel of the National Shooting Sports Foundation, Inc. (NSSF), the firearm industry’s trade association. He is responsible for NSSF’s legal and government relations.
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His article, titled As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall, clearly shows that, even as lawful gun ownership has expanded dramatically, violent crime, homicide, and several firearm-involved crimes have trended downward in recent years.
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Here are excerpts from his article:
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“The United States has added tens of millions of first-time gun owners since 2020. NSSF estimates about 26.2 million Americans bought their first firearm between 2020 through the end of 2024, including an estimated 8.4 million first-time buyers in 2020 alone. NSSF-adjusted verification background checks tied to retail sales suggest Americans purchased roughly 21.1 million firearms in 2020 and about 14.6 million in 2025….
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“If ‘more guns equals more murders’ were a dependable rule, this is the period when the trend should be unmistakable and persistent. Except it isn’t.
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“The FBI’s nationwide estimates show broad declines. In its 2024 summary report, the FBI estimates violent crime fell 4.5 percent from 2023 to 2024, and murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 14.9 percent….
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“…the claim at issue is…whether rising lawful gun ownership necessarily drives murders upward over time.
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“Recent firearm-homicide trends squash that assumption. Pew Research Center’s analysis of CDC mortality data reports gun murders fell from a record 20,958 in 2021 to 17,927 in 2023, and the gun murder rate declined from 6.7 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 5.6 in 2023.
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“In plain terms, the US experienced an enormous increase in lawful gun ownership after 2020, yet firearm homicide has moved down significantly from its pandemic peak.
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“With experts touting one of the largest one-year drops in homicides ever recorded in 2025, it’s clear: America can see increases in lawful gun ownership without automatically seeing increases in violent crime or firearm murders. This fact should shape the policy debate more than a premature assumption of law-abiding gun owners’ future actions.
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“If the objective is fewer criminal shootings and fewer homicides, the most effective levers are the ones tied to criminal behavior: identifying repeat violent offenders, disrupting illegal gun trafficking, prosecuting prohibited possessors, and restoring the certainty that serious violence brings serious consequences….
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Read the full article here.
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Also read the article, Violent Crime Declined After the Bruen Ruling, Here’s What the Data Shows, on The Truth About Guns website, which reports, “According to [the Real-Time Crime Index], as of October 2025, the latest numbers available show the 12-month running average of violent crime has dropped 14% since June 2022, when SCOTUS ruled in the Bruen case. Even more interesting, murders dropped 39% since the ruling, which prompted anti-gun doom and gloom predictions.
[ Read the SemperVerus article, US Supreme Court Affirms Right to Carry Arms in Public for Self-Defense ]
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