2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community

The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment is the US Intelligence Community’s official, coordinated evaluation of an array of threats to US citizens, the Homeland, and US interests in the world.

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This report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community, which is comprised of Air Force Intelligence, Army Intelligence and Security Command, Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, Dept. of Energy Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Dept. of Homeland Security Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Dept. of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Dept. of Treasury Office of Intelligence & Analysis, Drug Enforcement Administration Intelligence Program, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Marine Corps Intelligence, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, National Reconnaissance Office, National Security Agency, Office of Naval Intelligence, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, US Coast Guard Intelligence, and US Space Force.

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In presenting the report, Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said the threat of coordinated multi-city soft target attacks inside the United States is a reality. The domestic terror menace has shifted away from large-scale organized attacks toward individuals radicalized entirely by online Islamist propaganda, many of whom have never had direct contact with ISIS or al-Qaeda. The 34-page assessment identifies lone wolf attackers inspired by extremist ideologies as the most likely terrorist threat to the US Homeland. Gabbard said that while some radicalized individuals have had contact with foreign terror organizations, the growing concern is the actor who self-radicalizes through online content alone, with no detectable organizational link.

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Here are excerpts:

The spread of Islamist ideology—in some cases led by individuals and organizations associated with the Muslim Brotherhood who have provided financial and other forms of material support to terrorist groups such as HAMAS and Hizballah—poses a fundamental threat to freedom and foundational principles that underpin Western Civilization.

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In response to setbacks to their capabilities that have mitigated the threat of large-scale, complex attacks and reinforced the regional focus of the largest groups, Islamist terrorists have shifted attention to executing information operations to spread propaganda and inspire or enable individuals located in or with access to the West.

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In recent years, al-Qa‘ida and ISIS plotters intent on targeting the Homeland have focused more on virtually recruiting US-based aspirants to encourage and enable potential attacks.

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While al-Qa‘ida and ISIS maintain the intent to launch operations targeting the US, the most likely terrorist attack scenario in the Homeland involves US-based lone offenders—such as the New Orleans attacker on New Year’s Day in 2025 and the perpetrator of the attack on a pro-Israel gathering in Boulder, Colorado in June 2025.

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Jihadist ideology and influencers play a key role in mobilizing individuals to violence by advancing anti-Western and pro-militant narratives. Such narratives have influenced most US-based Sunni violent extremist attacks in recent years. Those promoting Islamist ideology have been able to appeal to broader and younger audiences through their use of technology, and in recent years have increasingly focused on emotionally evocative and grievance-based narratives rather than on traditional jihadist scholarship and ideological writings. Moreover, migrants who were already influenced by Islamism before they arrived, particularly in Europe, create risks that could increase given the deteriorating security environment in some countries.

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These ideological narratives are delivered online using sensationalist short-form content that seeks to provide religious justification for violence. Jihadists create close-knit online communities isolated from the outside world by framing perceived grievances within a larger narrative of Muslim oppression and redefining Islamic identity in opposition to Western values of freedom, including religious freedom, and democratic governance.

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Jihadist narratives that address personal grievances may be attractive to individuals seeking validation of violent desires or moral clarity, even if they lack familiarity with Islam. Such content normalizes intolerance of other beliefs and persons and attracts followers to Islamism. Anti-Western and anti-Semitic narratives probably influence Muslim youths facing integration challenges or who are disaffected by the West’s role abroad, including with the Israel–HAMAS conflict.

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Also see the Intelligence Community’s Public’s Daily Brief, which compiles news stories and social media highlights from across the IC to keep the public up-to-date on key stories and events.

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